Statecraft, Volatile portfolios and more – January 2025
Resilience, Rate Cuts & Risk-Taking: Welcome to January
Ah, January—the month of fresh starts, bold resolutions, and market recalibrations. While some are busy crafting New Year’s resolutions they won’t keep, we’re over here positioning for what’s shaping up to be a volatile year. With a potential recession looming in 2026, strategic moves now will pay off later. Let’s dive in.
Key Highlights & Achievements
- Portfolio Moves: Correcting and positioning in anticipation of a volatile year ahead. Given the likelihood of economic turbulence in 2026, I’ve started building a position in fixed income portfolios with high-yield strategies.
- Market Wins: Successfully navigated a profitable position in Ripple, timing and execution made all the difference.
- Media Mentions: Featured in The Washington Post discussing market trends and strategic investment plays.
- Entrepreneurial Growth: the private equity investment with a potential 3X return by 2028 you would wish you had earlier, Yomly, a promising venture in the alternative asset space.
TFE AUM Distribution: Managing $16 million in assets requires precision. Here’s a snapshot of how allocations are structured across different solution types:
📊 AUM Breakdown:
- Fixed Income: 30% (Aligning with our fixed-income positioning strategy)
- Private Equity: 25%
- Open Architecture Equities: 13%
- Property Investments: 10%
- Contractual & Life Insurance Plans: 5%
- Art Investments: 0.4%
- Luxury Liquids: 0%
- Cash: 16.6%
This diversification ensures stability while capitalizing on high-growth opportunities. The shift towards fixed income reflects anticipation of 2026 market conditions.
Investors Distribution: Understanding Our Investor BaseWith 43 investors onboard, here’s how our client segments break down:
📊 Investor Breakdown:
- UHNW (>$1M AUM): 7%
- HNW ($0.5M – $1M AUM): 18%
- Affluent Investors ($0.25M – $0.5M AUM): 30%
- Emerging Wealth Investors ($125K – $250K AUM): 40%
- Early Accumulators (<$125K AUM): 5%
Macro Analysis for Our Investors
- The Fed’s Dilemma: Inflation is cooling, but not enough for Powell to hit the brakes on rates. Expect a more cautious approach—think late Q2 or early Q3 for that first cut.
- Tech & AI Bubble? Not quite. The winners are separating from the hype stocks, so picking the right names matters more than ever.
- Private Credit Surge: As banks remain conservative, private lending is filling the gap, creating opportunities for savvy investors.
- Geopolitical Risk: The global chessboard remains unpredictable. Oil prices are steady for now, but any disruption could flip the script.
TFE Coincident Signal Model Analysis
The economy remains in a Recovery Phase, marked by:
- Increasing GDP growth.
- Stable unemployment.
- Declining inflation.
- Improving manufacturing activity.
👉 View the Detailed Report
TFE Early Signal Model Analysis
- Short-Term (3–6 months): Moderate growth in resilient sectors like technology and healthcare, with rising volatility.
- Mid-Term (6–12 months): Geopolitical risks and elevated borrowing costs could push the economy toward stagnation or mild contraction.
👉 View the Detailed Report
Actionable Insight: Focus on growth-oriented sectors that align with this economic phase, such as technology and consumer
Community Engagements:
- The Exchange Book Club: we had the chance to discuss Nexus by the infamous Yuval Harrari and highly recommended reading for every intellect curious about AI and the progrssion of information networks from the stone age to the future of humanity. for more details please read here
- Upcoming Events: Speaking at “Costly Investment Mistakes” Online. for registration here
- Podcast: “The Financial Engineer Talks” previously the economist exchange and now it is podcast that we kicked in January 2025. the episodes are still getting in shape. yet it is very excting to share weekly econmic and trending insights that affect our portfolios and strategies. feel free to suggest topics or questions you would like me discuss. please enjoy it here
Thank you
Final Thoughts: Staying Ahead in 2025
As we navigate a year filled with opportunities and challenges, staying informed and adaptable is key. With strategic shifts in fixed income, a balanced AUM distribution, and a diverse investor base, we’re well-positioned for what’s ahead.
The focus remains on resilience, smart allocation, and long-term value creation—because in an ever-changing market, discipline beats speculation.
If you’re ready to refine your investment strategy or explore new opportunities, let’s talk. The best time to plan for 2026 is now.
Until next month—stay sharp, stay liquid, and stay ahead.
📩 Let’s Connect: Linkedin
see you next month
Excited for Closing the Year with Purpose and Precision – December 2024
“Closing the Year with Purpose and Precision”
December is not just a month of reflection but one of action. As the year ends, we’ve focused on deepening client engagements, refining strategies, and seizing opportunities in an ever-evolving financial landscape.
Key Highlights
- Collaboration with MediaLine
This month, I was featured in a thought-provoking article written by Jacob Wirtchafter and published by MediaLine, positioning me as “Mister Prudence” for balanced perspective on the crypto ecosystem in the UAE.- Key Insights Shared: The UAE’s crypto-friendly environment compared to U.S. regulatory challenges and the role of Bitcoin echosystem in advancing this financial literacy. This experience reaffirmed the importance of being a trusted voice in emerging markets.
- Spotlight on Bitcoin
As Bitcoin hit all-time highs, we revisited the 👉 Donkey Trader Story, a timeless analogy of speculative greed. It resonated deeply across social platforms, sparking meaningful conversations about prudence in volatile markets. - Client-Centric Success
December was a month of meaningful client engagements:- Conducted portfolio reviews for long-term investors and more and more understanding the urgent need of creating Family Finance Services.
- Explored real Estate investment opportunities Rak properties that was our first time in the UAE, which was blast given the rising appetite and demand in anticipateion of the wynn casino.
- Ongoing investments in strategic opportunities in high-performing sectors like AI, and blockchain and Qauntum Computing, while accumulating postions in Low Cycle-Energy-Assets.
- Refining the Investment White Paper
We completed and launched a comprehensive investment white paper, integrating AI to refine financial analysis and quantum qualifications for more resilient portfolios. This framework will guide our growth-focused strategies for 2025.
Macro Analysis for Our Investors
TFE Coincident Signal Model Analysis
The economy remains in a Recovery Phase, marked by:
- Increasing GDP growth.
- Stable unemployment.
- Declining inflation.
- Improving manufacturing activity.
👉 View the Detailed Report
TFE Early Signal Model Analysis
- Short-Term (3–6 months): Moderate growth in resilient sectors like technology and healthcare, with rising volatility.
- Mid-Term (6–12 months): Geopolitical risks and elevated borrowing costs could push the economy toward stagnation or mild contraction.
👉 View the Detailed Report
Actionable Insight: Focus on growth-oriented sectors that align with this economic phase, such as technology and consumer discretionary.
Reflections & Gratitude
This December, I’m deeply grateful for:
- Investors Trust: Your questions and engagements inspire continuous growth.
One of the things I value most about my work is the trust you place in me to guide your financial strategies. Your feedback and introductions to like-minded individuals mean so much and allow me to grow our community intentionally. - Professional Growth: Opportunities like contributing to MediaLine elevate the reach of our insights.
- Corporate Collaboration: as the trend for corporate well being is increasing in the UAE, i’m excited to collaborate with Noor Corporate Wellness. Stay tuned for updates in future editions.
Looking Back, Looking Forward: Defining Our Focus and Building the Community
As we wrap up 2024 and step into 2025, four key pillars continue to guide our work:
- AI Implications in Wealth Management: Leveraging cutting-edge technology to deliver tailored, data-driven insights while maintaining a human touch.
- Family Finance and Succession Planning: Ensuring wealth and sound Financial Education is preserved, grown, and passed on efficiently across generations.
- Increasing the Gap Between Investing and Day Trading: Helping investors focus on meaningful, strategic decisions rather than chasing short-term trends for income generation.
- Who Are You in This System?: Recognizing the financial system’s biases and equipping clients to navigate and thrive within it.
These Pillars are the foundation of our strategies, creating clarity, resilience and growth.
Empowering Through Engagement:
In 2025, we’re doubling down on our mission to foster growth, learning, and collaboration within our community.
- The Exchange Book Club: Continue to explore transformative ideas, one page at a time. Together, we’ll uncover the wisdom that fuels financial and personal growth.
- The Live Trader’s Hub: A space to sharpen skills, share strategies, and master the markets—live and in real-time.
- The Economist Exchange: Dive deep into global trends and market dynamics with thought leaders and peers.
These platforms are the ecosystems designed to empower, educate, and inspire.
Spotlight Thought: Peace of Mind and Fixed Income
A client recently asked me: “What’s the best way to achieve security and peace of mind while generating fixed income?”
I shared this analysis comparing three options: Treasury Notes, Corporate Loan Notes, and Secured Bonds. Each promised income, but the differences in risk, collateral, and resilience revealed surprising lessons.
The result? peace of mind isn’t just about returns, it’s about choosing the right balance of security and returns.
Closing Notes
December has been a month of strategic positioning and reflection. As we step into 2025, I look forward to building on this momentum and creating lasting legacies together.
Thank you for your trust and partnership. Let’s make 2025 a year of focus, growth, and extraordinary achievements.
Warm regards,
Mohamad
