Month: May 2025

Frameworks from the Great Investors of all time

Mohamad Mrad Leave a comment

💰 Reflexivity, Risk & the Soros Mindset: Why Being Right Isn’t Enough

When George Soros talks markets, you listen.

This isn’t just a billionaire hedge fund manager who made a cool billion in a single day by shorting the British pound. Soros is the guy who rewired how we understand market behavior. While Ben Graham gave us financial analysis and stoic discipline, Soros pulled back the curtain on something way more chaotic and powerful.

🧠 Welcome to Reflexivity 101

Reflexivity is the loop where perception creates reality. Not just reflects it. In Soros’ world, your belief that prices will go up can actually make them go up. And when enough people believe the same thing? Boom market moves.

This isn’t just theory. It’s every “AI revolution” stock, meme coin, and bubble you’ve ever seen.

Markets aren’t rational calculators. They’re emotional ecosystems. That means sentiment matters just as much as fundamentals sometimes even more. Reflexivity is the feedback loop where sentiment influences price, which then influences sentiment… and around we go.

So why should you care?

Because if you’re only trading charts and balance sheets, you’re missing half the game.

🎯 Soros’ Goldmine Quote (That Everyone Misunderstands)

“It’s not whether you’re right or wrong, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.”

That quote is about risk management, not ego. You can be wrong 60% of the time and still rake it in if your losers are tiny and your winners are monsters.

Let that sink in. Your accuracy doesn’t matter. Your management does.

📈 Reflexivity in Today’s Markets

In 2025, reflexivity is practically hardwired into the system. Here’s how:

  • AI hype loops: A stock rallies because someone tweeted about AI. Now retail jumps in. Prices rise, validating the belief.
  • Macro fear spirals: Credit spreads widen, businesses stop hiring, GDP slows. Not because of real data because of fear.
  • Story stocks: Fundamentals? Meh. All that matters is the narrative. Tesla isn’t just a car company. Nvidia isn’t just a chipmaker. These are belief systems.

Want the edge? Learn to read belief not just earnings reports.

🧩 Soros vs. Graham: Two Eras, One Goal

  • Ben Graham: Value. Patience. Margin of safety. Protect the downside.
  • George Soros: Psychology. Sentiment. Market loops. Exploit the upside.

Graham teaches you how to survive. Soros teaches you how to capitalize.

If you blend the two? You don’t just survive the markets. You decode them.

🧠 Trading Isn’t About IQ It’s About EQ

Reflexivity proves this: Investing is less about brainpower, more about behavior.

The top traders don’t just have models they have mindsets.

  • They know when to double down.
  • They know when to cut losses.
  • They don’t marry their ideas. They date them and ghost them when needed.

They don’t try to predict every move. They manage their exposure so that when they’re wrong, they live to fight another day and when they’re right, they ride it like a wave.

🧠 Final Reflection

The smartest money in the room isn’t trying to be right all the time. They’re trying to win big when they’re right and lose small when they’re not. That’s how Soros operated. That’s what reflexivity is all about.

So yeah, maybe Graham taught us to look at the books but Soros? He taught us to look at the game.

“Graham gave us the principles. Soros gave us the psychology. Combine both and you don’t just survive the market. You understand it.”

Wealth Management in the Age of AI

Mohamad Mrad Leave a comment

AI for Investors, Supercharge Your Judgment, Not Just Your Data

📍 Human Intelligence, Enhanced

We’re already living in an AI-powered world, whether it’s your Spotify playlist predicting your breakup before you do, your fridge reordering almond milk, your phone creating social content, or your company quietly replacing redundant jobs.

AI is reshaping how we work, drive, shop, date, and even cook. So naturally, the question isn’t “Should I be using AI?”, it’s “Where is AI helping me make better decisions… and where is it just automating noise?”

Nowhere is that question more important than in investing.

Because while ChatGPT can summarize a 200-page 10-K faster than you can pour a coffee, the real edge comes from asking sharper questions not just getting faster answers. Great investors don’t just look for data. They interrogate it. They spot the nuance. They connect dots AI can’t see… yet.

That’s where AI becomes your strategic partner not your replacement.

🛠 AI Tools That Actually Help You Think

Let’s face it, the real flex in 2025 isn’t picking stocks off Reddit threads. It’s knowing how to interrogate data like a seasoned analyst with 20 years under their belt and then using AI to accelerate that process.

Here’s your toolkit:

1. ChatGPT (Yep, this one right here)

  • Breaks down complex earnings reports like a boss.
  • Simplifies macroeconomic gibberish into actionable insights.
  • Drafts memos so you stop emailing yourself ideas at 3am.
  • Helps you challenge your own assumptions (because your bias has a bias).

2. AlphaSense

  • Think Bloomberg Terminal, minus the six-screen setup.
  • Scans thousands of earnings call transcripts, investor presentations, and analyst takes.
  • Detects tone shifts in management commentary, subtle cues that most humans miss.

3. FinGPT / Finchat.io

  • These are finance-trained large language models designed to parse market noise.
  • Real-time updates, stock summaries, macro takes, all with a laser focus on financial markets.

🎯 Smart Investor Use Cases (Not Just Buzzword Stuff)

Let’s keep it real. AI isn’t just a parlor trick, it’s a process amplifier. Here’s how actual investors use it:

  • Pre-Earnings Game Plan: Ask AI to summarize the last 3 earnings calls for your target stock. Spot guidance changes, tone shifts, or quietly shelved projects.
  • Sector Deep Dives: Benchmark valuation metrics across competitors in a space. Figure out who’s overhyped and who’s flying under the radar.
  • Bias Busting: Got a strong thesis? Have AI tear it apart. It’s your unemotional devil’s advocate, without the smug attitude.
  • Investment Journaling: Let AI help you build your own investor playbook. Capture your rationale, risk assumptions, and decision triggers and revisit them before you repeat old mistakes.

⚠️ A Word of Caution Before You Go Full Robo-Trader

AI is smart, until it’s not. It doesn’t know your risk profile. It can’t feel market sentiment. And it absolutely doesn’t care if you miss your portfolio targets.

Use it as a thought partner, not a portfolio manager. You make the calls. It just helps you hear yourself more clearly.

💡 “The most powerful thing AI can do for you? Help you realize what actually matters not just what’s trending.”

💬 Parting Shot

If you’re not asking: “Where can I use AI to sharpen my judgment, not outsource it?”, you’re missing the point.

The future of investing? It’s not man vs. machine. It’s man with machine and the smartest ones will know exactly when to lean on it… and when to override it.

Ready to trade faster, think deeper, and invest smarter? Don’t just use AI. Collaborate with it.

Welcome to the next level.

Word Class, The Best of Econom-ist

Mohamad Mrad Leave a comment

🎢 Market Carnage, Recovery, and the Echoes of a Bubble: What Now?


Not long ago, the financial headlines screamed carnage. We’re talking $3 trillion evaporated, poof, from global markets. Tech got hammered. Real estate buckled. Emerging markets? Let’s just say, they didn’t emerge much. It felt like the economic equivalent of being kicked in the teeth… with steel-toed boots.

Fast-forward a few weeks and suddenly it’s all sunshine and green candles. Nasdaq is moonwalking. Meme stocks are back. AI plays are hotter than a mid-July server room. So let’s ask the question we’re all thinking but no one wants to say out loud: are we watching another bubble blow up before our very eyes?

🌪️ What Sparked the Selloff?

It wasn’t one big catastrophe, it was death by a thousand cuts:

  • Tariffs + Tension: The U.S. and China decided to throw economic punches like it’s 2018 all over again.
  • Geopolitics on Fire: Energy policy chaos, the never-ending Ukraine conflict, and a general sense that global diplomacy is on a sabbatical.
  • Oil Tanks (Literally): Crude prices hit multi-year lows, throwing energy markets into a tailspin.
  • Investor Panic: One fund manager summed it up best — “It’s not one thing. It’s everything.”

📉 Who Took the Biggest Hits?

Let’s just say, some sectors felt like they were thrown under a bus — and then reversed over:

  • Tech: High-flyers like Nvidia and Apple dropped faster than your phone when you hear the screen repair costs.
  • Real Estate: Rising rates met falling demand. Valuations? Adjusted downward… violently.
  • Emerging Markets: Outflows, shaky currencies, and export anxiety made for a triple threat.

🚀 The Snapback: Dead Cat or Phoenix?

Now the rebound is real, and it’s aggressive. Indexes are soaring. Retail traders are back on Reddit, chasing short squeezes and YOLO trades like it’s GameStop all over again. AI is the belle of the ball. Again.

Should we be celebrating this comeback? Maybe. Should we be suspicious? Absolutely.

🎈Bubble-o-Meter: Tingling

Here’s what’s got smart money watching their exits:

  • Sky-high valuations floating way above fundamentals.
  • Narratives louder than earnings.
  • Speculative assets drawing in wide-eyed dreamers.
  • Private markets behaving like it’s still 2021, deals everywhere, caution nowhere.

One analyst said it best: “We’re not in a full-blown bubble… but we’re passing all the exits on the way there.”

🧠 What the Smart Money’s Doing (and You Should Too)

Look — nobody’s asking you to ditch the markets and move to the mountains. Stay invested. Just stay smart.

  • Audit Your Exposure: Are you holding quality, or are you riding hype?
  • Diversify Intelligently: Not all “growth” is created equal. Look for cash flow, not just clicks.
  • Rotate, Don’t Retreat: Take profits where it makes sense and rebalance.
  • Play Offense AND Defense: Have dry powder. And a plan. Always.

📍Bottom Line: Predict Less. Prepare More.

Yes, the crash was brutal. Yes, the bounce is real. And yes, we might be inflating the next big bubble. Or not. The point isn’t to predict it. It’s to prepare for it.

Because in markets, just like in life, it’s not the smartest who win, it’s the best-prepared.