Updated TFE MacroScore Coincident Signal Model Analysis (as of 7 January 2025)
1. Economic Indicators Summary
| Indicator | Q1 2024 | Q2 2024 | Q3 2024 | Q4 2024 | Current | 3 Month Returns | 1 Year Returns | Source Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Rate | 1.4% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.5% | – | – | – | GDP Data |
| Industrial Production Total Index | 102.2 | 102.7 | 102.6 | 101.9 | – | -0.78% | 0.19% | Industrial Production |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | – | – | Unemployment Data |
| Inflation Rate | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.6% | – | – | Inflation Data |
| Manufacturing PMI | 46.5 | 47.1 | 48.3 | 49.1 | 49.1 | – | – | Manufacturing PMI |
2. Detailed Analysis
GDP Growth Rate
- Q1 2024: 1.4%
- Q2 2024: 2.8%
- Q3 2024: 3.2%
- Q4 2024: 2.5%
- Analysis: The GDP growth rate reflects robust growth during the mid-year, followed by moderate deceleration in Q4. This trend suggests that while the economy remains in recovery, growth is slowing slightly.
Industrial Production Total Index
- Q1 2024: 102.2
- Q2 2024: 102.7
- Q3 2024: 102.6
- Q4 2024: 101.9
- 3 Month Returns: -0.78%
- 1 Year Returns: 0.19%
- Analysis: Industrial production showed stability for most of the year but experienced a slight decline in Q4, potentially indicating cooling demand or production issues.
Unemployment Rate
- Q1 2024: 4.0%
- Q2 2024: 4.1%
- Q3 2024: 4.2%
- Q4 2024: 4.3%
- Current: 4.3%
- Analysis: The gradual increase in unemployment rates over 2024 reflects a potential cooling of the labor market, aligning with slower GDP growth.
Inflation Rate
- Q1 2024: 3.1%
- Q2 2024: 2.9%
- Q3 2024: 2.7%
- Q4 2024: 2.6%
- Current: 2.6%
- Analysis: Inflation has steadily declined throughout 2024, approaching the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%, suggesting easing price pressures.
Manufacturing PMI
- Q1 2024: 46.5
- Q2 2024: 47.1
- Q3 2024: 48.3
- Q4 2024: 49.1
- Current: 49.1
- Analysis: The Manufacturing PMI improved steadily over 2024 but remains slightly below the expansion threshold of 50, indicating gradual recovery in the manufacturing sector.
3. Phase Determination
Based on the analysis:
- GDP Growth: Moderate, with slight deceleration in Q4.
- Industrial Production: Slight decline in Q4.
- Unemployment Rate: Gradual increase throughout the year.
- Inflation Rate: Consistent decline toward stability.
- Manufacturing PMI: Improving but below 50.
The economy is simulating a Recovery Phase, with signs of a stable but moderated pace of growth.
Actionable Insights
- Note For Investors: Focus on sectors benefiting from recovery but prepare for potential slowdown, such as healthcare and consumer staples.
