Tag: Commodities and Real Assets

The Financial Pulse – Exciting Monthly

Mohamad Mrad Leave a comment

Statecraft, Volatile portfolios and more – January 2025

Resilience, Rate Cuts & Risk-Taking: Welcome to January

Ah, January—the month of fresh starts, bold resolutions, and market recalibrations. While some are busy crafting New Year’s resolutions they won’t keep, we’re over here positioning for what’s shaping up to be a volatile year. With a potential recession looming in 2026, strategic moves now will pay off later. Let’s dive in.

Key Highlights & Achievements
TFE AUM Distribution: Managing $16 million in assets requires precision. Here’s a snapshot of how allocations are structured across different solution types:

📊 AUM Breakdown:

  • Fixed Income: 30% (Aligning with our fixed-income positioning strategy)
  • Private Equity: 25%
  • Open Architecture Equities: 13%
  • Property Investments: 10%
  • Contractual & Life Insurance Plans: 5%
  • Art Investments: 0.4%
  • Luxury Liquids: 0%
  • Cash: 16.6%

This diversification ensures stability while capitalizing on high-growth opportunities. The shift towards fixed income reflects anticipation of 2026 market conditions.

Investors Distribution: Understanding Our Investor BaseWith 43 investors onboard, here’s how our client segments break down:

📊 Investor Breakdown:

  • UHNW (>$1M AUM): 7%
  • HNW ($0.5M – $1M AUM): 18%
  • Affluent Investors ($0.25M – $0.5M AUM): 30%
  • Emerging Wealth Investors ($125K – $250K AUM): 40%
  • Early Accumulators (<$125K AUM): 5%

Macro Analysis for Our Investors

Agitated Geopoltics and Volatile Portfolio Impacts
Since he returned to office, Donald Trump started with series of decisions and media tittles that boosted the volatility in the market place not only in the US but also triggering soverign unrest around the glob all the way from the east in china to the noth in europe, russia and near home canda and latin america passing throguh the middle east and africa. for more details how new lines on the maps are affecting the charts read the details in this article.
  • The Fed’s Dilemma: Inflation is cooling, but not enough for Powell to hit the brakes on rates. Expect a more cautious approach—think late Q2 or early Q3 for that first cut.
  • Tech & AI Bubble? Not quite. The winners are separating from the hype stocks, so picking the right names matters more than ever.
  • Private Credit Surge: As banks remain conservative, private lending is filling the gap, creating opportunities for savvy investors.
  • Geopolitical Risk: The global chessboard remains unpredictable. Oil prices are steady for now, but any disruption could flip the script.

TFE Coincident Signal Model Analysis

The economy remains in a Recovery Phase, marked by:

  • Increasing GDP growth.
  • Stable unemployment.
  • Declining inflation.
  • Improving manufacturing activity.
    👉 View the Detailed Report

TFE Early Signal Model Analysis

  • Short-Term (3–6 months): Moderate growth in resilient sectors like technology and healthcare, with rising volatility.
  • Mid-Term (6–12 months): Geopolitical risks and elevated borrowing costs could push the economy toward stagnation or mild contraction.
    👉 View the Detailed Report

Actionable Insight: Focus on growth-oriented sectors that align with this economic phase, such as technology and consumer

Community Engagements:

  • The Exchange Book Club: we had the chance to discuss Nexus by the infamous Yuval Harrari and highly recommended reading for every intellect curious about AI and the progrssion of information networks from the stone age to the future of humanity. for more details please read here
  • Upcoming Events: Speaking at “Costly Investment Mistakes” Online. for registration here
  • Podcast: “The Financial Engineer Talks” previously the economist exchange and now it is podcast that we kicked in January 2025. the episodes are still getting in shape. yet it is very excting to share weekly econmic and trending insights that affect our portfolios and strategies. feel free to suggest topics or questions you would like me discuss. please enjoy it here

Thank you

Final Thoughts: Staying Ahead in 2025

As we navigate a year filled with opportunities and challenges, staying informed and adaptable is key. With strategic shifts in fixed income, a balanced AUM distribution, and a diverse investor base, we’re well-positioned for what’s ahead.

The focus remains on resilience, smart allocation, and long-term value creation—because in an ever-changing market, discipline beats speculation.

If you’re ready to refine your investment strategy or explore new opportunities, let’s talk. The best time to plan for 2026 is now.

Until next month—stay sharp, stay liquid, and stay ahead.

📩 Let’s Connect: Linkedin

see you next month

Excited for Closing the Year with Purpose and Precision – December 2024

“Closing the Year with Purpose and Precision”

December is not just a month of reflection but one of action. As the year ends, we’ve focused on deepening client engagements, refining strategies, and seizing opportunities in an ever-evolving financial landscape.

Key Highlights

  1. Collaboration with MediaLine
    This month, I was featured in a thought-provoking article written by Jacob Wirtchafter and published by MediaLine, positioning me as “Mister Prudence” for balanced perspective on the crypto ecosystem in the UAE.
    • Key Insights Shared: The UAE’s crypto-friendly environment compared to U.S. regulatory challenges and the role of Bitcoin echosystem in advancing this financial literacy. This experience reaffirmed the importance of being a trusted voice in emerging markets.
    👉 Read the Full Article Here: MediaLine: Crypto and Prudence
  2. Spotlight on Bitcoin
    As Bitcoin hit all-time highs, we revisited the 👉 Donkey Trader Story, a timeless analogy of speculative greed. It resonated deeply across social platforms, sparking meaningful conversations about prudence in volatile markets.
  3. Client-Centric Success
    December was a month of meaningful client engagements:
    • Conducted portfolio reviews for long-term investors and more and more understanding the urgent need of creating Family Finance Services.
    • Explored real Estate investment opportunities Rak properties that was our first time in the UAE, which was blast given the rising appetite and demand in anticipateion of the wynn casino.
    • Ongoing investments in strategic opportunities in high-performing sectors like AI, and blockchain and Qauntum Computing, while accumulating postions in Low Cycle-Energy-Assets.
  4. Refining the Investment White Paper
    We completed and launched a comprehensive investment white paper, integrating AI to refine financial analysis and quantum qualifications for more resilient portfolios. This framework will guide our growth-focused strategies for 2025.

Macro Analysis for Our Investors

TFE Coincident Signal Model Analysis

The economy remains in a Recovery Phase, marked by:

  • Increasing GDP growth.
  • Stable unemployment.
  • Declining inflation.
  • Improving manufacturing activity.
    👉 View the Detailed Report

TFE Early Signal Model Analysis

  • Short-Term (3–6 months): Moderate growth in resilient sectors like technology and healthcare, with rising volatility.
  • Mid-Term (6–12 months): Geopolitical risks and elevated borrowing costs could push the economy toward stagnation or mild contraction.
    👉 View the Detailed Report

Actionable Insight: Focus on growth-oriented sectors that align with this economic phase, such as technology and consumer discretionary.

Reflections & Gratitude

This December, I’m deeply grateful for:

  • Investors Trust: Your questions and engagements inspire continuous growth.
    One of the things I value most about my work is the trust you place in me to guide your financial strategies. Your feedback and introductions to like-minded individuals mean so much and allow me to grow our community intentionally.
  • Professional Growth: Opportunities like contributing to MediaLine elevate the reach of our insights.
  • Corporate Collaboration: as the trend for corporate well being is increasing in the UAE, i’m excited to collaborate with Noor Corporate Wellness. Stay tuned for updates in future editions.

Looking Back, Looking Forward: Defining Our Focus and Building the Community

As we wrap up 2024 and step into 2025, four key pillars continue to guide our work:

  1. AI Implications in Wealth Management: Leveraging cutting-edge technology to deliver tailored, data-driven insights while maintaining a human touch.
  2. Family Finance and Succession Planning: Ensuring wealth and sound Financial Education is preserved, grown, and passed on efficiently across generations.
  3. Increasing the Gap Between Investing and Day Trading: Helping investors focus on meaningful, strategic decisions rather than chasing short-term trends for income generation.
  4. Who Are You in This System?: Recognizing the financial system’s biases and equipping clients to navigate and thrive within it.

These Pillars are the foundation of our strategies, creating clarity, resilience and growth.

Empowering Through Engagement:
In 2025, we’re doubling down on our mission to foster growth, learning, and collaboration within our community.

  • The Exchange Book Club: Continue to explore transformative ideas, one page at a time. Together, we’ll uncover the wisdom that fuels financial and personal growth.
  • The Live Trader’s Hub: A space to sharpen skills, share strategies, and master the markets—live and in real-time.
  • The Economist Exchange: Dive deep into global trends and market dynamics with thought leaders and peers.

These platforms are the ecosystems designed to empower, educate, and inspire.

Spotlight Thought: Peace of Mind and Fixed Income

A client recently asked me: “What’s the best way to achieve security and peace of mind while generating fixed income?”

I shared this analysis comparing three options: Treasury Notes, Corporate Loan Notes, and Secured Bonds. Each promised income, but the differences in risk, collateral, and resilience revealed surprising lessons.

The result? peace of mind isn’t just about returns, it’s about choosing the right balance of security and returns.

👉 Read the Full Story Here

Closing Notes

December has been a month of strategic positioning and reflection. As we step into 2025, I look forward to building on this momentum and creating lasting legacies together.

Thank you for your trust and partnership. Let’s make 2025 a year of focus, growth, and extraordinary achievements.

Warm regards,
Mohamad

Trump Tariffs and New Policies Might Affect Your Portfolio Performance

Mohamad Mrad Leave a comment

What If Trade Policies Shifted Overnight? Would Your Investments Be Ready?

Imagine waking up to find major industries—metals, energy, and medical supplies—turned upside down by tariffs. With the incoming Trump administration signaling adjustments to its proposed trade policies, this could soon be reality. Let’s break it down.

1. Are Narrower Tariffs the New Strategy?

What if I told you the sweeping tariffs promised during the 2024 campaign might not happen? Instead, Trump’s team is exploring more targeted tariffs aimed at sectors like:

  • Defense Industrial Metals: Iron, steel, copper, aluminum.
  • Energy Production: Batteries, solar panels, rare earth materials.
  • Critical Medical Supplies: Pharmaceutical materials, syringes, vials.

Would these specific industries brace themselves or benefit from this narrower scope?

2. What Happened to the Bold Campaign Promises?

During the campaign, proposals included:

  • Broad 60-100% tariffs on imports from China.
  • A 10% tariff on imports from other countries.
  • A hefty 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada.

But as the administration prepares to take office, the approach seems more focused and strategic. This shift raises several questions:

  • Why the Change in Scope?
    Could it be an attempt to balance the economic impact of tariffs with political goals? While broad tariffs sound decisive, they risk escalating costs for businesses and consumers alike, potentially fueling inflation. By narrowing the scope, the administration might be aiming to avoid these pitfalls while still appearing tough on trade.
  • Public Backlash and Inflation Concerns:
    Sweeping tariffs might win campaign applause, but their implementation could ignite public dissatisfaction as higher costs ripple through households and businesses. Targeting specific sectors, such as defense and energy, may be an attempt to mitigate this backlash.
  • Strategic Targeting of Sectors:
    The focus on critical industries aligns with national priorities, such as securing supply chains. Tariffs on renewable energy and rare earth materials could spur domestic production while sending a clear message about economic independence.
  • Potential Negotiation Tactics:
    Could this shift be a calculated move? By scaling back initial plans, the administration might hope to gain leverage in trade negotiations without fully committing to the broader proposals.

3. How Could This Impact Global Trade?

Tariffs always come with consequences, and these focused measures could create ripple effects across the global economy:

  • Reshaping Industries and Supply Chains:
    Targeted tariffs might incentivize companies to realign their supply chains, favoring domestic production in the U.S. However, this shift often results in higher production costs, which may strain exporters and increase prices for consumers.
  • Strained Diplomatic Relations:
    Tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China could heighten trade tensions.
    • Mexico and Canada: Tariffs may undermine the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement), triggering potential retaliation or renegotiations.
    • China: Broad tariffs would likely escalate the fragile trade relationship, prompting Beijing to strengthen ties with emerging markets.
  • Global Alliances and Economic Isolation:
    Could this push trading partners toward new alliances? China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) could accelerate as countries look to reduce reliance on U.S. markets, potentially isolating the U.S. economically.
  • Currency and Commodity Dynamics:
    Trade tensions could cause currency volatility, with the Chinese yuan depreciating to offset tariffs. Commodity prices, especially for metals and rare earth materials, may also surge as supply chains adjust.
  • Impact on Consumer Goods and Inflation:
    Higher production costs in critical sectors, like energy and defense, might spill over into consumer goods prices, fueling inflation.

Would these dynamics reshape the global trade balance or weaken U.S. economic influence? The outcome depends on how trading partners respond and whether domestic industries rise to meet demand.

5. What Stocks Should You Watch?

Could these tariffs boost some industries while hurting others? Here are sectors and companies to keep an eye on:

  • Metals and Mining: SCCO, FCX, TECK, BHP, RIO, GLNCY, IVPAF.
  • Renewable Energy and Solar: FSLR, ENPH, RUN, SEDG, CSIQ, NOVA, SHLS, ARRY, MAXN, FLNC, JKS, DQ.
  • Rare Earth Materials: LAC, PLL, SLI, LTHM, MP, ALB.
  • Steel and Aluminum: AKS, ARNC, AA, CENX, KALU, CSTM, X, CLF, NUE, STLD.

Would your portfolio need a shift to reflect these emerging trends?

6. What About the Uncertainty?

Plans remain in flux. Could these policy shifts change again? Adjustments may reflect strategic recalibration as the administration balances economic and political pressures. Is your strategy flexible enough to adapt?

So, What’s the Move?

Trade policy shifts like these can ripple through industries and portfolios alike. Would a balanced, nimble approach help you weather the changes? If you’re unsure how these developments might affect your investments, let’s connect.

November Reflections: Building Wealth with Clarity, Creativity, and Consistency

Mohamad Mrad Leave a comment

As November comes to a close, I’m reflecting on the lessons and progress made this month. It’s been a period of steady growth, creative problem-solving, and meaningful client engagements.

From repositioning client portfolios to brainstorming innovative strategies for 2025, this month reinforced my commitment to building and protecting wealth through disciplined, thoughtful actions. Here’s a glimpse into the key highlights and insights from November:

Key Highlights:

  1. Client Success Stories:
    • Helped a retired client reposition her portfolio for steady growth while ensuring her expenses are fully covered. Seeing her financial independence thrive at just 38 is a powerful reminder of the impact of strategic wealth management.
  2. Creative Engagement Ideas for 2025:
    • Proposed a villa open-house event and a Ramadan dhow iftar to elevate client relationships through unique, engaging experiences.
  3. Strategic Market Moves:
    • Adjusted investor portfolios by moving from gold to mid-to-long-term strategies, aligning with shifting market trends.
  4. Personal Growth:
    • Made progress on writing my second book, “The Big Scam,” which delves into financial truths and myths.

Actionable Insights:

Here are three key takeaways from this month:

  • Clarity and Creativity Fuel Progress: Defining clear objectives and executing them creatively builds momentum.
  • Boring is Effective: Wealth management thrives on steady, predictable strategies—not adrenaline-driven decisions.
  • Energy Flows Where Focus Goes: Directing energy to the right priorities leads to meaningful results, both personally and professionally.

A Note on Growth:


This year, I’ve been fortunate to expand my services and welcome a select few new investors. These introductions have come through the trusted referrals of my existing clients, and I’m deeply grateful for the confidence they place in me.

As I continue to grow, my focus remains on working with individuals who value strategic, thoughtful financial planning. If you believe someone in your network could benefit from my approach, I’d be happy to explore how I can support their goals.

Looking Ahead:

As we move into December, my focus includes:

  • Designing impactful client strategies tailored to market conditions.
  • Launching engaging events to deepen client relationships in 2025.
  • Continuing to grow The Financial Pulse as a platform for insights and reflections.

If you’d like to discuss your portfolio strategy or know someone who might benefit from my services, feel free to reach out.

Closing Note:

Thank you for being part of this journey. Here’s to finishing 2024 strong and welcoming an even more prosperous 2025!

Client Conversations: Navigating Interest Rates, Election Outcomes, and What’s Next for the Portfolio

Mohamad Mrad Leave a comment

Recently, a client asked me, “With the U.S. elections and the Fed’s latest moves, what’s your take? And what should I do with my portfolio?” It’s a great question, given all the market dynamics we’re seeing. Here’s how we broke it down together.

The Fed’s Interest Rate Cut

On November 7, 2024, the Federal Reserve reduced its key interest rate by 0.25%, setting the federal funds rate between 4.5% and 4.75%. I explained, “The Fed’s signaling confidence that inflation will stabilize around its 2% target. Currently, core inflation is running at 2.1%, down from 3.2% earlier this year—a meaningful drop. This rate cut aims to support employment growth, keeping borrowing costs attractive.”

Lower rates often boost consumer spending and corporate investment, with direct effects on both equity and bond markets. This move sets the stage for our next portfolio adjustments, especially in relation to borrowing-sensitive sectors and fixed-income assets.

Trump’s Return and Potential Policy Shifts

Next, we looked at the election outcome. “Trump’s victory, flipping states like Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Wisconsin, positions his administration to pursue aggressive economic reforms. We could see tax cuts that lower corporate tax rates back to around 21%, down from the current 25%.” I noted that Trump’s past economic policies created an average GDP growth of 2.8% per year, suggesting a potential economic stimulus that could benefit industrial and domestic sectors.

“However,” I added, “increased domestic policies may also lead to renegotiated trade deals or tariffs. This can impact supply chains, particularly for companies heavily reliant on international trade.”

Sector Implications: What’s Likely to Rise and Fall

With the recent Fed rate cut and Trump’s return to office, each of the 11 major sectors faces unique pressures and opportunities. Here’s a quick breakdown of what we anticipate will shift up or down:

  1. Technology – Likely to Rise
    Lower borrowing costs mean tech companies can finance growth projects more affordably, potentially boosting earnings. Trump’s pro-business stance could also favor tech innovation. Expect gains of around 10-15% in leading companies, especially those focused on AI, cloud, and cybersecurity.
  2. Healthcare – Likely to Rise
    With anticipated tax cuts and potential boosts to domestic policy, healthcare companies—especially those focused on biotech and pharmaceuticals—are positioned for growth. We could see gains of 8-12% as investments in R&D become more attractive under lower rates.
  3. Industrials – Likely to Rise
    Industrial firms benefit from increased infrastructure spending, and Trump’s push for U.S.-based manufacturing could further drive growth in this sector. Anticipate gains in the 7-10% range, particularly in transportation, construction, and equipment manufacturing.
  4. Energy – Likely to Rise
    Domestic production policies are likely to increase demand for U.S.-based energy production, potentially lifting oil and gas prices. Energy companies, especially in the shale and renewable sectors, could see gains of 5-8% as a result.
  5. Financials – Mixed
    While rate cuts typically lower profit margins on loans, Trump’s pro-business policies could boost lending activity. We anticipate a balanced outlook here, with traditional banks facing margin pressures, but investment banks and asset managers potentially seeing growth in the 3-5% range.
  6. Consumer Discretionary – Likely to Rise
    Lower interest rates often lead to increased consumer spending, especially on discretionary items. Companies in e-commerce, travel, and luxury goods could see gains of 6-9%. However, any future inflationary pressures could dampen long-term gains.
  7. Consumer Staples – Likely Stable
    Staples are typically less affected by rate cuts and political changes. However, with a potentially stronger economy and improved consumer sentiment, we expect steady performance here, with slight gains around 2-3%.
  8. Utilities – Likely to Decline
    As interest rates drop, high-dividend sectors like utilities often become less attractive relative to growth-oriented investments. We might see declines in the 2-4% range as investors shift to sectors offering greater upside.
  9. Real Estate – Likely to Rise
    Lower rates support real estate growth, and with Trump’s policies likely emphasizing U.S. economic development, REITs focused on industrial and commercial properties stand to benefit. Anticipate gains of 5-7% as borrowing costs decrease and demand for commercial space grows.
  10. Communication Services – Mixed
    While lower rates favor growth, this sector’s performance will depend heavily on content and ad revenue trends. Large telecom and media companies could see moderate gains (3-5%), while social media platforms may face increased scrutiny over regulatory policies.
  11. Materials – Likely to Rise
    Materials will benefit from domestic manufacturing and infrastructure investment. Demand for raw materials could increase, driving potential gains of 6-8% in the sector, especially among companies focused on construction materials, chemicals, and metals.

Asset Classes to watch for

Then, we discussed how these factors are shaping financial markets.

  • Equity Markets: Equity Markets: Stocks rallied after the Fed’s rate cut, with the S&P 500 up 2.1% and the NASDAQ gaining 2.6%. Given Trump’s likely focus on domestic economic growth, we’ll lean into sectors that stand to benefit most, like tech, healthcare, and industrials. For instance, tech stocks could see 10-15% earnings boosts with cheaper borrowing. Energy, too, could get a lift as domestic production policies roll out, providing upside in the 8-10% range.
  • Fixed Income: “Given the Fed’s rate cut,” I explained, “we’ll maintain our focus on corporate bullet bonds tied to FX trading.” These allow us to leverage currency movements while targeting solid returns. By holding a short-to-intermediate duration, we’ll stay agile and ready to pivot if shifts in rates or currency trends present new opportunities.
  • Bitcoin and Ethereum: Bitcoin and Ethereum: My client was curious about our crypto exposure, especially given BTC’s recent surge of 18% over the last quarter. “We’ve increased our crypto allocation from 5% to 8%,” I told her, “to capture upside in BTC and ETH as both benefit from a risk-on environment and lower rates.” BTC serves as a hedge against inflation risks, while ETH’s applications in decentralized finance provide resilience in a shifting economic landscape. We plan to ride this bullish wave through to February 2025 as our partial exit targets will be around $135,000 to $140,000 , aligning with projected market conditions.
  • Commodities and Gold: Positioning for Stability: Our conversation also covered commodities, with gold currently up 7% year-to-date. “Gold acts as our hedge against both inflation and geopolitical risk,” I explained, “and it’s a solid buffer as we anticipate potential policy shifts.” Additionally, energy commodities like oil may see price increases as U.S. policies prioritize domestic production. Selective exposure here aligns with our portfolio’s defensive goals, with potential gains in the 5-7% range
  • Real Assets: With changes in U.S. trade policies likely,” I noted, “we’ll add selective exposure to emerging markets that rely less on U.S. trade, like Southeast Asia.” Diversifying this way helps cushion against potential trade disruptions, especially if tariffs increase on European or Asian imports. We aim to keep international exposure at about 15% of the portfolio to balance risk and growth.
  • Collectibles: How the Art Market and Luxury Assets Fit In: Tangible assets like fine art, rare wine, and luxury watches have shown historical resilience. The art market experienced a slower phase in 2023-2024, yet these assets often act as inflation-resistant hedges. With Trump’s business-focused policies, high-net-worth investors may increasingly view rare collectibles as a stable diversification play. Allocating 5-7% of the portfolio here could offer both stability and exclusive growth potential.
  • Alternative Investments: Private Equity, Venture Capital, and Real Assets: With Trump’s focus on U.S.-based growth, private equity and infrastructure funds look promising. “Private equity funds focused on manufacturing and logistics could see annual returns of 10-15%,” I explained, especially with anticipated tax reductions. Venture capital targeting tech innovation also aligns with current economic priorities, offering potential returns of 15-20%.
  • Cash Reserve: Lastly, we’re slightly increasing liquidity, setting aside 5% of the portfolio in cash. This buffer lets us act quickly if market volatility presents unique opportunities or if shifting policies call for tactical moves.

So, What’s the Move?

After covering each area, I summed it up: “Our strategy is about staying balanced and nimble. By holding specific assets that align with our goals and monitoring the landscape closely, we’ll be ready to adapt as needed.”

She appreciated the tailored approach, leaving with a clearer view of the steps ahead. And that’s exactly what these conversations are about—translating complex events into precise, actionable insights.