Category: Case Studies

Market Madness and Hidden Gems:

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Navigate beyond the maddness and seize an opportunity you can’t miss

Their is no way you can loose

on these levels

Market Madness and Hidden Gems:

Navigate Speculation and Seize Long-Term Opportunities

Executive Summary

The current market environment is marked by significant speculative activities and underlying economic shifts. Key highlights include the ongoing:

  • Speculative frenzy in meme stocks and crypto tokens.
  • Promising investment opportunities in the energy sector, particularly natural gas.
  • The dollar’s recent recovery.

Situational Analysis

The market is experiencing a euphoric stage, highlighted by speculative trading in meme stocks like GameStop (GME) and related crypto tokens. This sentiment is mirrored in the S&P 500, which is trading on expectations of a Fed rate cut and a soft economic landing.

In the energy sector, the US natural gas market presents a significant opportunity. The fundamentals and current low prices suggest a potential for substantial gains with limited downside risk. This contrasts sharply with the speculative excesses seen in other market areas. Furthermore, the rise of AI and blockchain cryptos has a significant impact on energy demand.

Stress Factors

  1. AI Technologies and Natural Gas:
  2. AI technologies require substantial computational power, which translates to increased energy demand. Data centres, the backbone of AI operations, consume large amounts of electricity for both computing and cooling purposes.
  3. Training sophisticated AI models involves intensive computational processes that consume vast amounts of energy. As the complexity of AI models grows, so does their energy footprint.
  4. Blockchain Cryptos & Energy :
  5. Blockchain cryptos, particularly those using proof-of-work algorithms like Bitcoin, require extensive computational power to solve cryptographic puzzles. This process, known as mining, is highly energy-intensive and significantly increases electricity consumption.
  6. Maintaining decentralized networks for blockchain operations involves numerous nodes, each consuming energy. As blockchain adoption grows, the aggregate energy demand for these networks rises.

Natural Gas, Uranium, and Copper: Critical Players in the Energy Transition

a- Natural Gas: Strategic Energy Resource: As a Wall Street financial analyst, I view natural gas as a pivotal element in the energy sector. It serves not only as a versatile and cleaner-burning alternative to coal but also plays a crucial role in balancing the energy grid. Its ability to rapidly adjust power output makes it indispensable in supporting intermittent renewable sources such as wind and solar.

  • Catalyst for Renewable Integration: Natural gas plants are essential for maintaining grid stability during fluctuations in renewable energy production. This characteristic is vital as we transition to a more sustainable energy mix, making natural gas a strategic investment in the short to medium term.

b- Uranium: Staple for Low-Carbon Power: Uranium is central to nuclear power generation, a critical component of our low-carbon energy solutions. The resurgence of interest in nuclear energy, driven by its reliability and zero-emission nature, positions uranium as a key commodity in the fight against climate change.

Enhancing Energy Security: From an investment perspective, the high energy density and efficiency of nuclear power provide a compelling case for uranium. Nuclear plants offer consistent, high-output energy production, which is essential for ensuring long-term energy security and supporting economic stability.

c- Copper: Essential for Modern Infrastructure: Copper’s excellent conductivity makes it fundamental to the electrical infrastructure necessary for the new wave of energy technologies. Its extensive use in power cables, motors, and transformers is critical as we upgrade our power grids and expand renewable energy capacity.

Enabling Green Technologies: The role of copper extends beyond infrastructure; it is also crucial in developing efficient renewable energy systems and electric vehicles. As these sectors grow, driven by global sustainability goals, the demand for copper will continue to rise, highlighting its importance as a strategic investment.

d- Speculative Mania:

  • The recent spike in GME and related tokens exemplifies the speculative excess. These assets surged dramatically in value based on social media posts, reflecting a disconnection from economic reality.
  • The market’s focus on a potential Fed rate cut ignores critical inflation data and early signs of recession.

e- Dollar and Global Markets:

  • The dollar’s recovery against major currencies indicates underlying economic shifts. Mixed performance in global markets, particularly in Asia and Europe, highlights ongoing economic fragility and the impact of geopolitical factors.

Future Speculation

The speculative nature of the current market suggests a potential bubble, especially in sectors driven by meme trading. As the Fed contemplates its next moves, market reactions will likely remain volatile. The energy sector, particularly natural gas, offers a counterpoint with its solid fundamentals and low prices, presenting a more stable investment opportunity.

Investment Recommendations

Invest in:

  1. Natural Gas:
    • Rationale: With current depressed prices and strong fundamentals, natural gas offers substantial upside potential with limited downside risk.
    • Action: Consider buying shares of natural gas companies or ETFs focused on this sector.
  2. Stable Blue-Chip Stocks:
    • Rationale: Companies with strong balance sheets and consistent performance provide stability amid market volatility.
    • Action: Invest in blue-chip stocks that are likely to withstand economic fluctuations.
  3. Precious Metals:
    • Rationale: In times of economic uncertainty and inflation, precious metals like gold and silver serve as safe-haven assets.
    • Action: Allocate a portion of your portfolio to gold and silver, either through physical holdings or ETFs.

Divest from:

  1. Meme Stocks and Speculative Assets:
    • Rationale: The recent surge in meme stocks and related crypto tokens is driven by speculative mania and is likely unsustainable.
    • Action: Gradually sell off positions in meme stocks and speculative crypto assets to lock in profits and reduce exposure to potential losses.
  2. Overvalued Tech Stocks:
    • Rationale: Some tech stocks have reached valuations that are disconnected from their fundamentals and may be vulnerable to corrections.
    • Action: Review your tech stock holdings and consider selling those with excessively high valuations.
  3. High-Risk Bonds:
    • Rationale: In a rising interest rate environment, high-risk bonds may suffer from increased volatility and declining prices.
    • Action: Reduce exposure to high-yield bonds and consider reallocating to safer fixed-income securities.

Financial Advice

  1. Diversify Investments:
    • Balance speculative investments with stable assets like natural gas, which offer potential for long-term gains.
  2. Monitor Fed Policies:
    • Stay informed about Fed announcements and economic indicators. The timing and nature of Fed actions will significantly impact market movements.
  3. Risk Management:
    • Given the speculative nature of the current market, implement risk management strategies to protect investments. This includes setting stop-loss orders and regularly reviewing portfolio allocations.
  4. Long-Term Focus:
    • While short-term trading opportunities exist, maintain a long-term perspective. Focus on assets with solid fundamentals and avoid being swayed by market euphoria.

Conclusion

The current market landscape is characterized by both speculative excess and genuine investment opportunities. While the euphoria around meme stocks and cryptocurrencies signals a potential bubble, the energy sector, particularly natural gas, offers a compelling case for long-term investment. Investors should balance their portfolios, stay informed about economic developments, and implement robust risk management strategies to navigate this volatile environment. By following the buy and sell recommendations, investors can better position themselves for both short-term and long-term success

The Courage to be ” Disliked & Happy” Journey of two books

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With Ichiro Kishimi and Fumitake Koga through their enlightening works

Our Community actively learning new insights and finding ways to apply them

Inspired by our Friday session at the Exchange Book Club, we enjoyed the young man’s dialogue with the wise philosopher. This dialogue challenged the common “Blame Culture”, “Weak Psychology”, and superficial “Life Coaching” practices, presenting instead a powerful theory based on “Adlerian Psychology”. In their books The Courage to Be Disliked and The Courage to Be Happy. captivated our group, and sparked reflective discussions. These books challenge the mainstream psychological and coaching approaches that often focus on past traumas. Instead, they offer a future-oriented perspective, emphasizing personal responsibility and self-acceptance.

Our Journey Began with The Courage to Be Disliked. Through the conversational style of the book, we joined the young man in his quest for understanding happiness and fulfillment. The wise philosopher introduced us to the revolutionary ideas of Adlerian psychology, particularly the notion of “teleology” – the focus on future goals rather than past causes “etiology”- main stream.

Key Lessons from The Courage to Be Disliked:

  1. On Expectations: Separate the Tasks: The philosopher taught us to distinguish what is within our control and what is not, this liberate us from the burden of others’ expectations.
  2. The Reason Why: Teleology vs. Etiology: most of the society along with the young man struggle with this concept. Our own social tendencies is to blame the past. The philosopher, however, emphasized that focusing on future aspirations empowers us to shape our destinies.
  3. Peace: Self-Acceptance: We learned that embracing our imperfections leads to peace and authenticity. Ie: Stop comparing to others
  4. Contribute for happiness: Personal Responsibility: Taking charge of our happiness is crucial for growth and freedom, this can happen by providing value to our communities.

It really take courage to Be Happy because our comfort zone today makes us vulnerable to depression. the dialogue between the young man and the philosopher deepened. The sequel continued to challenge our conventional beliefs, emphasizing that true happiness comes from meaningful contributions and living a life of purpose. So break the boundaries.

Key Lessons from The Courage to Be Happy:

  1. Contribution vs. Validation: The philosopher highlighted that happiness is found not in seeking external validation but in helping others and engaging in community activities.
  2. Self-Acceptance vs. Self-Doubt: The young man’s journey towards self-acceptance resonated with us, underscoring the importance of embracing our true selves.
  3. Personal Responsibility vs. Victim Mentality: The dialogue revealed that owning our happiness empowers us to enact positive changes in our lives.
  4. Courage to Change: The young man’s fears of societal disapproval echoed our own, yet the philosopher encouraged us to align our actions with our values and goals for true fulfillment.

Real-Life Applications: The insights from these books offer practical guidance for our everyday lives. Here are some ways we discussed implementing these principles:

Here are some ideas for after office hours:

Contribution IdeaDescription
VolunteeringJoin local non-profits or community organizations to help with their initiatives. Examples include food banks, shelters, and youth programs.
MentorshipOffer to mentor young professionals or students in your field, providing guidance and support.
Community Clean-UpsParticipate in local clean-up events to improve the environment and promote community pride.
Skill WorkshopsConduct workshops to teach valuable skills like coding, cooking, or financial literacy to community members.
Charity FundraisingOrganize or participate in fundraising events for causes you care about.
Support GroupsFacilitate or join support groups that focus on mental health, addiction recovery, or chronic illness.
Cultural ActivitiesVolunteer at local museums, theaters, or cultural festivals to promote arts and culture.
Neighborhood WatchJoin or start a neighborhood watch program to enhance local safety and security.
Youth CoachingCoach a local sports team or lead activities for youth organizations like Scouts or 4-H.

Enhancing the work culture:

Contribution IdeaDescription
Team BuildingOrganize team-building activities that promote collaboration and positive work culture.
Employee WellnessAdvocate for and help implement employee wellness programs, including mental health days and fitness challenges.
Green InitiativesLead or participate in workplace sustainability projects like recycling programs or energy-saving initiatives.
Professional DevelopmentOffer to conduct training sessions or share knowledge with colleagues to enhance their skills.
Corporate Social ResponsibilityInitiate or join CSR projects that allow your company to give back to the community, such as charity drives or volunteer days.
Diversity and InclusionAdvocate for diversity and inclusion initiatives to create a more equitable workplace.
Peer SupportStart or join peer support groups that address work-related stress, career development, or work-life balance.
Innovation ProjectsLead or participate in innovative projects that can improve company processes or products.
Internal MentorshipMentor junior employees to help them navigate their career paths within the company.

Conclusion: Our discussions of The Courage to Be Disliked and The Courage to Be Happy have profoundly impacted our perspectives on happiness and self-fulfillment. These books challenge us to break free from the shackles of past traumas and societal expectations, encouraging us to live authentically and contribute meaningfully to society. By embracing self-acceptance and personal responsibility, we can truly find the courage to be both disliked and happy. These insights have enriched our book club meetings and have also inspired us to implement positive changes in our own lives.

Mohamad Mrad

Investments that secure human Survival – Urban Farming: could it be the future?

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The Vanguard of Sustainable Agriculture and Investment.

Urban Farming: The Future of Fresh, Local Food

Urban farming. You’ve heard the buzz, but this isn’t just another fad—it’s a game-changer. As cities grow and populations spike, the demand for fresh, local food is exploding. And urban farming? It’s stepping up in a big way.

But let’s be clear: urban farming isn’t just about tossing some veggies in a garden bed. This is about building a sustainable, connected, and community-driven future. So why is urban farming gaining steam, and how can you get a slice of the action? Let’s explore it here.

Why Urban Farming Is Exploding

Here’s the deal: people are talking about urban farming for some very real reasons:

  • Sustainability: Local food means less time spent in trucks, less pollution, and fresher produce. Who’s saying no to that?
  • Food Security: Global supply chains can crash. Urban farming ensures city dwellers aren’t left hanging when they need fresh food.
  • Economic Boost: Urban farms cut food costs and can pump money back into the community. Win-win.
  • Community Vibes: It’s more than food—these farms are social hubs, pulling people together and sparking collaboration.

Who’s Disrupting the Urban Farming Scene?

Let’s talk about the heavy hitters—the companies doing more than just planting seeds. They’re rewriting the future of farming.

  • AeroFarms: Mastering vertical farming with mist environments. No soil, 95% less water. Efficiency meets innovation.
  • Bowery Farming: No pesticides, indoor farms, and tech-driven growth. Smart lighting, smarter farming.
  • Gotham Greens: Rooftop greenhouses, fresh produce year-round, and urban spaces you wouldn’t believe. This is farming where it’s least expected.
  • Plenty: AI and machine learning to fine-tune growing conditions in vertical farms. High-tech farming at its best.

Urban Farming: Your Next Investment Move

Here’s where it gets interesting. Urban farming isn’t just a feel-good movement; it’s a ripe market for investment. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just starting out, there’s room to make moves:

  • Direct Investment: Some urban farming giants are already publicly traded. Want in? Buy shares and ride the growth.
  • Venture Capital: Urban farming startups are exploding, and they need capital to scale. Early-stage investors, this is your sweet spot.
  • ETFs: Looking for a broader play? Check out agriculture-focused ETFs that have urban farming in the mix:
    • Invesco Global Agriculture ETF (PAGG)
    • VanEck Vectors Agribusiness ETF (MOO)
    • iShares Global Agriculture Index ETF (COW)
    • First Trust Indxx Global Agriculture ETF (FTAG)

The Bottom Line

Urban farming isn’t just about planting crops in the middle of the city—it’s a solution. A smart, sustainable response to the challenges our world is facing. Whether you care about making cities greener or spotting the next big investment, urban farming is it. The future of food is already here, and it’s growing right where you live.

Other Resources to consider:

https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/PAGG:US?embedded-checkout=true

https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/moo/fact-sheet

https://www.blackrock.com/ca/investors/en/products/239548/ishares-global-agriculture-index-fund

https://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Etf/EtfSummary.aspx?Ticker=FTAG

Ridiculous Bank Charges – A Story by Mohamad Mrad

Mohamad Mrad

“It’s been half a year since I initiated conversations with FH. After considering various advisory firms and solutions, FH chose to become my client in January 2022. This journey, I must admit, is thrilling.

Our goal is for FH to retire at 45, setting our strategy timeline to seven years. The strategy, crafted by Mohamad Mrad, involves several asset classes and aims to accumulate the necessary working capital by 2029. However, I won’t delve into the strategy specifics here.

One element of our strategy is what we term “sustainable investment plans”. These involve monthly investments to bridge the gap in our total investment pool, which consists of real estate, bonds, private equity, and alternative investments.

As we implement this strategy, we’ve noticed that each card transaction costs us between 2.5 to 3.1% monthly, depending on the bank. This fee, charged by banking solutions like Visa or Mastercard, amounts to a significant $6,000 USD over a decade.

An alternative is a bank standing order. However, each transaction on an elite or premium account incurs an additional $11.4 (equivalent of 42AED) + 72AED, or around $19.5, charged by the corresponding bank. This totals to about $31 USD per transaction, which is nearly 55% of the card cost option.

This is unacceptable. A sustainable investor making monthly transactions to build an investment pool shouldn’t be charged exorbitantly for a standing order. Banks should significantly reduce these charges.

DeFi will soon force a change in this behavior. For now, we’ve found an innovative solution to drastically reduce these costs. Unfortunately, I can’t yet apply this solution to all my clients.

Truth or Dare

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In the aftermath of the pandemic-induced stock market crash in February 2020, savvy investors like Mohamad Mrad were poised to seize the countless opportunities presented by relatively cheap stocks in April 2020.

This led to a swift market recovery and an unprecedented rally, fueled in part by stimulus injections. However, this environment could hardly be labeled as a healthy economy.

Despite the S&P 500 indicating a healthy increase of above 15.2%, the reality of redundancies across various industries, layoffs, and poor earnings reports in sectors such as oil and gas, banking, and hospitality towards the last quarter of 2020, raised questions about the authenticity of this rally. Was this rally real or just a mirage?

As a technical investor, Mohamad Mrad understands the price action and the moves created by the trader’s order flow. The greed of investors is creating a positive stock performance and consequently a positive index performance. Yet, the fundamentals do not reflect the same.

Let’s consider some key indicators: Manufacturing jobs, GDP, Interest Rates, and the Consumer Price Index. All these indicators are signaling an unhealthy economy. Even the $ US dollar index (DIX) started revealing reversal signs from its bearish momentum, signaling an uptrend.

On 28 January, the S&P index dropped below its critical level 3,732.86 signaling an end of the bullish momentum. Yet other major indices like the Nasdaq and Dow Jones didn’t break their respective critical levels. However, bearish signals are starting to appear with a mix of rising investors fear and diminishing buyers’ sentiments.

Mohamad Mrad suggests that the coming trading sessions will be crucial to indicate one of the following scenarios: This could just be a correction in the markets, after a strong sprint, with a sideways period, which in all cases isn’t healthy given all the fundamental indicators are weak and it will increase the sentiment of fear. Or, the market will fall sharply heading toward a recession as a delayed reflection of the weak fundamental indicators.

With this uncertainty in the air, more signals are adding up in the support of bearish markets. The best strategy for intraday selling and buying opportunities when they appear: Keep some liquidity and be ready to have another shot. Focus on long term investments when the markets reach new lows, and the indicators support a healthy growth.

Resolutions or only on new year?

Mohamad Mrad Leave a comment

In the grand scheme of life, the Gregorian calendar is but a man-made construct, a tool to measure the passage of time. Yet, it’s undeniable that the end of one year and the beginning of another holds a certain symbolic significance. As Mohamad Mrad would argue, every day is an opportunity for a fresh start, a chance to set new objectives and work towards them with relentless determination.

While the Gregorian calendar marks the end of a fiscal year and the beginning of another, it’s essential to remember that the true measure of time is not in the ticking of a clock but in the progress we make. This is a concept that Mohamad Mrad emphasizes. He encourages us to view every day as a potential beginning of a ‘new year’ or a ‘new self’.

The celebration of a new year should not be a mere ritual but a celebration of positive change. It could be a new business, a new investment, a new accomplishment, or even a new mindset. Mohamad Mrad suggests that we should use the first of January as a marker to set new goals and work towards achieving them in a realistic rhythm.

In the grand scheme of things, time is a constant that we cannot control. What we can control, however, is what we accomplish within that time. Mohamad Mrad encourages us to make small improvements every second, minute, day, week, month, or year towards our objectives.

To illustrate this point, Mohamad Mrad uses the example of the bamboo tree forest, which takes five human years to form, the birth of an elephant, which takes two human years, and the birth of a new human being, which takes nine months. These examples serve to remind us that we all run on different clocks, and all creation in this universe has its timing.

The key is to set objectives that align with our natural timing. If you want to generate an additional 100,000 USD next year, you have nine months to do so. If you want to publish a new book, you have nine months to do so. This concept of measuring time in ‘birth units’ is an innovative approach proposed by Mohamad Mrad.

In conclusion, every day is an opportunity to declare our intentions and work towards achieving them. Mohamad Mrad encourages us to keep a daily agenda of at least seven targets that help us accomplish our goals. He emphasizes the importance of daily productivity and the need to avoid falling into routines of consumerism and distraction.

Remember, every day is a chance to work towards becoming the best version of yourself. As Mohamad Mrad would say, “Every day shall be a landmark for a new celebration accomplished with every new breath.”

Overcoming Challenges in Investor-Advisor Relationships to Safeguard Generational Wealth

Mohamad Mrad

The Investor Profile:
When it comes to managing serious wealth, not all advisories are created equal—shocking, right? The right investment office isn’t just about balancing your financials; it’s about being a trusted partner that syncs with your legacy, values, and long-term goals. So, let’s break down what makes the ideal investor for family office services—especially for those looking to do more than just preserve wealth, but to seamlessly pass on values and vision across generations.

Challenges Faced:
Our clients, a group of high-net-worth families, encountered several challenges in their relationships with financial advisors. These challenges were putting their financial future at risk and included the following key issues:

  1. Conflicts of Interest:
    The investors faced concerns that their financial advisors may be recommending certain investment products driven by hidden incentives, rather than the investors’ best interests. This led to mistrust and the potential for suboptimal investment performance.
  2. Lack of Communication:
    Clients often felt left in the dark when it came to their portfolio’s performance. Some received only sporadic updates, leaving them uncertain about the direction and status of their investments.
  3. Disagreements Over Investment Strategies:
    There were frequent misalignments between the clients’ investment goals and the strategies recommended by their financial advisors, leading to dissatisfaction and strained relationships

Solution Provided:

Our clients, a collective of high-net-worth families, faced several challenges that were more than just annoying—they were potentially jeopardizing their financial futures. Here are the key issues they were dealing with:

  1. Conflicts of Interest:
    Clients were concerned their advisors were recommending investments not because they were the best option but because they came with hidden incentives. This led to—surprise—mistrust and less-than-ideal investment performance.
  2. Lack of Communication:
    Clients felt like they were left in the dark when it came to their portfolios. Sporadic updates were the norm, leaving them guessing about the direction of their investments. Not exactly a recipe for confidence.
  3. Disagreements Over Investment Strategies:
    There were constant misalignments between what the clients wanted and what the advisors recommended. Naturally, this led to dissatisfaction and strained relationships.

Solution Provided

  1. Addressing Conflicts of Interest:
    We got straight to the point. Transparency first. We disclosed all fees, commissions, and any potential conflicts upfront—no surprises. This established trust and ensured every recommendation was aligned with the families’ long-term goals. We set clear benchmarks, timelines, and discussed expected volatility, tailoring everything to fit the client’s risk appetite. This level of clarity put the client back in control, restoring trust and focusing on wealth preservation and growth.
  2. Enhancing Communication:
    To fix the communication breakdown, we didn’t just send an occasional email. We put in place a structured communication system. Regular performance reviews? Check. Quarterly reports? Done. Real-time updates from a dedicated team? You got it. Now, clients were never left wondering what was happening with their money.
  3. Resolving Disagreements Over Investment Strategies:
    We found the root of the problem: conflicting investment philosophies. So, we took the time to understand each family’s financial persona and objectives. We facilitated collaborative sessions to adjust portfolios as needed and explained why certain strategies made sense. This open dialogue closed the gap between expectations and recommendations—everyone got on the same page.
  4. Comprehensive Education and Trust Building:
    We didn’t stop at managing the portfolio. We educated our clients on the nuances of their investments because informed clients make better decisions. Regular educational sessions? Yes, please. This not only built trust but created a stronger, long-term partnership.

Outcome

By addressing these challenges head-on, we didn’t just restore trust between our investors and the financial industry; we fortified it. Through transparency, better communication, and aligning strategies with clients’ goals, our clients experienced major improvements in their financial planning. The result? A smoother wealth management process and stronger legacy preservation. This case proves that when you communicate openly, stay transparent, and align with a client’s vision, you set the stage for enduring partnerships—and ensure financial futures are secure for generations to come.

The student that changed my life

Mohamad Mrad

The “Monday Effect” is a well-known stock market anomalies that suggest certain cyclical and seasonal patterns in stock prices, potentially challenging the Random Walk Hypothesis, which posits that stock prices move unpredictably and independently of their past movements. Let’s explore this anomaly with some case studies and statistics:

The Monday Effect, was first reported by Frank Cross in 1973, suggesting that stock returns on Mondays are typically lower than other days of the week.

Case Studies and Statistics:

  • Historical Analysis: Studies in the late 20th century often found that stock returns on Mondays were indeed lower on average than on other days. For example, a study might show negative average returns for Mondays over several years, compared to slight positive average returns for other weekdays.
  • Changing Trends: More recent studies, however, have shown that this effect has diminished or disappeared. Advances in market efficiency, the proliferation of algorithmic trading, and global trading practices may have eroded the Monday Effect.
  • Explanations: Various theories have been proposed for the Monday Effect, including the settlement of trades from the previous week and negative news over the weekend affecting investor sentiment.

Implications and Current Perspectives

In the world of trading, I was merely a day trader. My life was a rollercoaster of making money one day and losing it the next. My mood swung wildly, dictated by the financial outcomes of my trades. I was not exchanging value with others, not contributing to a community or an organization. I was just on my PC, isolated and without a clear mission or vision. My focus was solely on producing my monthly income. When I fell short, panic and anxiety would creep in, affecting my personal life, my relationships with my family and friends. I sought solitude, avoiding social gatherings and becoming increasingly withdrawn. My life was devoid of purpose until I began my mentorship journey with Albert.

Albert introduced me to a new identity. I was no longer just a trader; I became a mentor. This transformation gave my life a new meaning and a higher purpose. Two years ago, I was just doing technical charting to produce income. I was plagued by depressive thoughts and low-frequency vibrations. Even ideas like suicide crossed my mind a couple of times. Today, my bank of happiness is abundant. I have never been happier in my life, and I owe a large part of this transformation to my mentorship journey with Albert.

With Albert, I learned to become patient. I learned to accept that every person has a different capacity to learn. I learned that people acquire knowledge in different ways. Some people prefer to read, some prefer to watch videos, and some prefer to listen to podcasts. This experience and new learning made me a better person in my personal life. I became a better father, a better husband, a better friend, and a better communicator. I even became better in trading. I became an investor, a wealth manager, a writer, and most importantly, I became a mentor.

Today, I see myself on a journey to affect the life of one million people. This is the legacy I am building. This became possible because my journey started with Albert the ambitious. Today, I am not just Mohamad Mrad, the day trader. I am Mohamad Mrad, the mentor, the investor, the wealth manager, the writer, and the man on a mission to make a difference.

Maria at age 37 decided to retire mohamad was her second and last choice to engineer the new phase

Mohamad Mrad

Investor Background:

Maria, a retired professional, was growing increasingly concerned about how to maintain her lifestyle without the fear of outliving her savings. Like many retirees, she needed a portfolio that would provide stable income while still allowing for growth. Her previous financial advisor, Stephan, struggled to meet these goals due to limited access to resources, leaving Maria feeling disconnected from her investment strategy. Recognizing the need for a more personalized solution, Stephan recommended Maria to Mohamad Mrad, a financial engineer known for creating customized financial plans tailored to critical situations like hers.

photo from current retirement place in florence

The Challenge:

Maria’s concerns were twofold: she needed a reliable income stream to cover her monthly living expenses while preserving her savings for the long haul. Specifically, Maria’s monthly expenses came to around €3,000, which covered her rental bills in Florence, accommodation, food, utilities, transportation, health bills, and even care for her beloved cat, Mandu. On top of that, Maria had a strong preference for ethical investments, which added another layer of complexity in finding the right balance between returns and values.

Maria’s financial goals weren’t just about covering the basics—she also wanted the flexibility to travel. Every five months or so, she’d fly to Romania to visit her family during the summer or take trips to Dubai to reconnect with old friends. The combination of these goals, along with her preference for ethical investing, meant that Maria was stuck in a generic strategy that didn’t align with her priorities, leaving her without the peace of mind she desperately needed in retirement.

The Solution:

When Mohamad came on board, he took a more personal and hands-on approach. For the past 2.5 years, he’s been meeting with Maria every Thursday, working side by side with her to build both her portfolio and her understanding of how the financial markets tick. They dug deep into research together, finding ethical companies that matched Maria’s values, all while crafting a strategy that blended trend-based moves with contrarian tactics to get the most out of her equity portfolio.

This wasn’t about handing Maria some off-the-shelf plan—this was a real collaboration. They spent months researching and pinpointing companies that met her ethical standards. When big names like Apple, Tesla, or Nvidia didn’t quite fit the bill, they got creative. They invested in structured products so Maria could still take advantage of market shifts without directly buying into those companies.

On top of equities, Mohamad and Maria built a high-dividend-paying portfolio that they constantly fine-tuned to keep the income flowing smoothly each month. With the extra capital, they diversified into investment-grade corporate bonds and even dipped a toe into crypto, with a small allocation in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple (XRP). It took about 6 to 7 months to fully roll this out, carefully spreading the capital across different asset classes.

Their steady, weekly collaboration consistently delivered results and fostered a strong connection, which eventually grew into a genuine friendship.


In the end, this personalized approach really delivered. Over the 2.5 years, Maria’s portfolio achieved an 18% annualized return, outperforming market benchmarks while sticking to her ethical standards. Her high-dividend strategy now provides a steady 1.5% monthly income, and the bond allocation offers stability with a 11% yield from investment-grade assets. The Crypto allocation has grown over 30%, adding an extra layer of diversification.

More importantly, Maria gained confidence in navigating her investments and staying aligned with her values. What began as a business relationship evolved into a true partnership, empowering her to take control of her financial future. Thanks to Mohamad’s commitment and their weekly collaboration, they’ve built something high-performing, sustainable, and deeply personal. Financial success paired with a meaningful connection—that’s the real outcome here.

Value Investing for Economic Recessions

Mohamad Mrad

The “Monday Effect” is a well-known stock market anomalies that suggest certain cyclical and seasonal patterns in stock prices, potentially challenging the Random Walk Hypothesis, which posits that stock prices move unpredictably and independently of their past movements. Let’s explore this anomaly with some case studies and statistics:

The Monday Effect, was first reported by Frank Cross in 1973, suggesting that stock returns on Mondays are typically lower than other days of the week.

Case Studies and Statistics:

One of the most common terms used on social media to convince people buying investment courses, from universities or some other independent institutes. The father of value investing is “Benjamin Graham” and his most famous apprentice “Warren Buffet”.

If you have slight interest in the investment world, for your personal wealth or even professionally working in this space, to a great certainty you might have heard about the book “The Intelligent Investor” or even read it.

You might have also charted the decision-making processes and protocols from the book, for me personally the intelligent investor, is one of my favourite classicals.

After meeting with so many investors, managing quite a large portfolio of client assets, reading a lot of books and writing some of them myself, I wanted to share with you this brief article about value investing so you may form your own perspective on what “Value investing” really means.

Investor psychology

a lot has been written and actually I dedicated a whole chapter about it in “the cash cow , the trader who sold his cow”. The chapter is titled as “eve’s apple” and our easy psychology falling into out of balance and temptation to weak investment habits. The aim of smart investor is always to be patient or pay-tient and disciplined. We have developed in that book a list of tools that can help restore balance and articulate self-awareness tactics to maintain a disciplined investment/trading business.

As when it comes to value investors, they are looking on the long terms valuation of their assets, they need to avoid being swayed by short term market movements, and focus on the long term fundamentals of the company they are acquiring as well the essence of their strategy.

Undervalued or Overlooked

According to Mohamad Mrad a value investing strategy involves acquiring/buying stocks that are undervalued by the market. This comes from the concept that the markets are not always and that there are opportunities to buy stocks at bargain, at discount to their intrinsic value.

At this moment I would like to highlight the idea from the intelligent investor “buy your stocks like you buy your groceries, most people buy stocks like they buy their perfumes”.

Yet the challenge become how to find these stocks? Do you find them though an AI screener, or stockbroker, or what your friends say? Is there a way to figure out these stocks?

Let us proceed and check…

The aim is to find stocks that are trading at discounted price relative to its fundamental characteristics such as:

  • Their earnings
  • Dividends
  • Debts
  • P/E ratio (price to earnings ratio)

The common believe is that these stocks will eventually be recognized by the market and will outperform the overall market or growth stocks in the long run.

(Long run in classic finance is over 10 years period, isn’t this really long, in the current markets and hypes flips of today, people are looking for 2X on an average of 4 years period, i.e.: doubling the assets value every 3 to 4 years or faster); waiting to double the assets in 10 years is similar to investing in real estate in a mature market like the UK that is appreciating every year by 8% on value.

So, in today’s markets that time horizon must be reconsidered specially when the investor is looking for a value portfolio.

Remember the word value comes from the intrinsic value of the company.

“Low price – to – earnings ratio P/E”

This financial ratio measures the price of a stock relative to is earnings per share. This is calculated by dividing the current market price of a stock by its earning per share or (EPS). (PS: all these statistical data are available for every company you intend to invest in on yahoo finance and some other websites for free).

When looking for undervalued stocks the aim is to find a low P/E ratio company. Yet it is not enough on its own to approve a buy signal for a company. It is useful for comparing the different stocks in the same sector or industry. Another way of using it is also to compare the current p/e of the company with its historical values. However, on its own a p/e ratio is not enough to make a value investment decision. Other factors must be considered to complete the decision model:

Financial performance ratings to evaluate the earning, debts

Circulating vs non circulating shares (To avoid severe manipulation scenarios)

Industry trends

Economic cycles (four easy to recognize – recessions, recovering or rallying markets, boom, and slowdowns)

Putting all of these together help bring a more complete decision making model to optimize on the investment in terms of risk reward ratios and time horizons.

The Economic Cycle

It is imperative to know which phase of the cycle we are in. The global economic cycle can be read from the major stock almost 1 or 2 quarters in advance before the new starts mentioning it. Is price of major blue chips stocks leading in every sector start falling down and their trend changes in direction. Once the cycle is identified. one must start directing the portfolio toward the suitable sectors and most importantly these slow downs and recessions phase of the cycle presents great opportunities for smart investors to acquire their value investments in stocks in the relative sectors. For example when in recession the best value stocks are going to be in the Technology – consumer discretionary, Communications, Industrials and material sectors. While shifting from a Boom to a Slow-Down in economy the best sectors are going to be Energy – Commodities – Health Care and Utilities.

High dividend yield

Another ratio to valuate value companies for investment are the dividend yields and we typically are looking for high dividend yields. They indicate that a company is paying out a large portion of its earnings as dividends, which can be attractive to the income portfolios. It as well indicates the health of the company balance sheets as good prospect for the future run.

Balance sheet

All publicly traded companies must report their annual balance sheets. By now you must be familiar that every information you need about them is available for free on the yahoo finance. A strong balance sheet must indicate a low level of debt “financial gearing ratios”, a sound track record of earnings and cash flow. As these companies would stand much better chances to weather economic downturns and hence present a stable return over the long term.

Word Of Caution from Mohamad Mrad

With great caution, investors must mitigate their expectations of risk, reward and time horizons. As the market may take longer time to recognize the value of a stock, or the company’s fundamental may deteriorate. The key advantage is this strategy is the margin of safety against potential losses, when buying undervalued stocks, investors are able to minimize their downside risk and potentially realize higher returns. One of the most difficult challenges for value investing is how to accurately determine the intrinsic value of a company a careful assessment of the financial statement looking for the ratios and notions mentioned above is a must to make an informed judgement about it’s a true value.

Given all of the above, value investment requires a long term vision and as well it must be couple with some other strategies like growth investments to continually beat the market.

For that, read the article on predictive investments.